There has recently been a flurry of political interest in devolving immigration powers. In our latest briefing, we examine the case for devolving immigration powers to Scotland and how a devolved system might work.
The case for devolving immigration is primarily because Scotland’s working-age population is not projected to increase at the same rate as the rest of the UK, and the number of working-age Scots to support our ageing population won’t be available without immigration. Specific sectors of the Scottish economy will be hardest hit, including tourism, care, hospitality and agriculture, which rely on a higher proportion of non-UK workers. This is why many business organisations and trade unions support devolving these powers.
We highlight the Canadian or Quebec model. The main criticism is the risk of leakage of migrants to other parts of the UK. The international evidence in the Hepburn Report (Scottish Parliament, 2017) shows that high retention rates can be achieved. Scotland is not an isolated, low-wage, underdeveloped nation comparable to regions in other countries that have sustained lower retention rates. There is a good quality of life, a developed economy and a generally welcoming population. While we need to do more on these issues, these factors favour the higher retention rates we have seen internationally – as high as 90% in Quebec. Contrary to the claim by the Tory leader, enforcement is not complex, given the development of Scottish income tax codes.
We understand that immigration is intuitively an unlikely candidate for devolution until you look at the international evidence. Sadly, successive UK ministers have instinctively rejected the concept without adequately examining the issue.
The partial devolution of immigration powers on the model suggested by the Scottish Government could address Scotland’s demographic challenges. A shared responsibility would allow the policy to be introduced gradually (starting with rural areas), providing an evidence base for further action.